Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalma Galfi v Lanlana Tararudee

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalma Galfi (Local)

Prediction 55.30%1.81fair odd
EV +7.84%
Edge +4.02%
Kelly +8.25%
Growth +0.647%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.95%55.71%55.05%59.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.711.701.9562.50%58.62%58.82%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanlana Tararudee (Visit)

Prediction 44.70%2.24fair odd
EV +7.27%
Edge +3.03%
Kelly +5.19%
Growth +0.378%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.30%44.29%44.95%51.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.112.052.4053.48%47.43%48.78%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dalma Galfi (Local): 55.30%; Lanlana Tararudee (Visit): 44.70%. For Dalma Galfi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV +7.84%E +4.02%K +8.25%G +0.647%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -16.42%E -8.78%K -18.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-03 22:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +1.21%E +0.659%K +1.45%G +0.018%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -14.63%E -7.66%K -16.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 22:05
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +1.21%E +0.659%K +1.45%G +0.018%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -14.63%E -7.66%K -16.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 22:05
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.11%E -1.19%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -10.61%E -5.30%K -10.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-03 22:05
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.32%E -2.50%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.14%E -2.92%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-03 22:05
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.32%E -2.50%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.61%E -5.30%K -10.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-03 22:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.32%E -2.50%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.61%E -5.30%K -10.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-03 22:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.32%E -2.50%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.61%E -5.30%K -10.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-03 22:05
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -5.43%E -3.18%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -12.84%E -6.59%K -13.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 22:05
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.98%E -3.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.14%E -2.92%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-03 22:03
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.98%E -3.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -10.61%E -5.30%K -10.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 22:00
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.98%E -3.52%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -10.61%E -5.30%K -10.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 22:00
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -8.20%E -4.94%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV +2.80%E +1.22%K +2.16%G +0.060%3.7%2026-03-03 21:50
Everygame🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.75%E -5.30%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.67%E -0.758%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 21:40
GTbets🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -9.86%E -6.05%K -15.64%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV +2.35%E +1.03%K +1.83%G +0.043%5.0%2026-03-03 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -10.41%E -6.42%K -16.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +7.27%E +3.03%K +5.19%G +0.378%3.4%2026-03-03 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -10.41%E -6.42%K -16.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +7.27%E +3.03%K +5.19%G +0.378%3.4%2026-03-03 21:57
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -10.41%E -6.42%K -16.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +2.80%E +1.22%K +2.16%G +0.060%5.2%2026-03-03 16:21
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.07%EV -10.96%E -6.81%K -17.97%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.93%EV -4.35%E -2.03%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 21:59
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -11.51%E -7.20%K -19.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +2.80%E +1.22%K +2.16%G +0.060%6.0%2026-03-03 21:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%0.6%2026-03-03 22:05