Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Petra Marcinko v Renata Zarazua

Kickoff: 2026-06-15 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

59%

41%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Petra Marcinko (Local)

Prediction 58.86%1.70fair odd

EV +0.062%

Edge +0.037%

Kelly +0.089%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.67%58.76%58.97%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.541.611.601.7064.94%62.27%62.31%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Renata Zarazua (Visit)

Prediction 41.14%2.43fair odd

EV -2.09%

Edge -0.877%

Kelly -1.51%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.75%41.24%41.03%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.272.272.3848.78%44.11%44.05%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Petra Marcinko (Local): 58.86%; Renata Zarazua (Visit): 41.14%. For Petra Marcinko (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.699. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.700, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.062%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV +0.062%E +0.037%K +0.089%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -15.66%E -7.64%K -14.92%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-06-15 15:30
Pinnacle🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -0.526%E -0.311%K -0.763%G +0.000%	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -8.67%E -3.91%K -7.11%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-06-15 15:30
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.47%E -2.12%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.44%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-15 15:30
PlayUp🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.06%E -2.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.44%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-15 15:30
William Hill🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.65%E -2.87%K -7.49%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-06-15 15:30
Bovada🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.24%E -3.25%K -8.58%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.32%E -1.41%K -2.46%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-06-15 15:30
888sport🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.24%E -3.25%K -8.58%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-06-15 15:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.24%E -3.25%K -8.58%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-06-15 15:30
888sport (SE)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.24%E -3.25%K -8.58%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-06-15 15:30
Coral🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -5.24%E -3.25%K -8.58%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -11.55%E -5.37%K -10.04%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-06-15 15:30
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.82%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.32%E -1.41%K -2.46%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-15 15:30
ReBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.82%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.32%E -1.41%K -2.46%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-15 15:30
Betway🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.82%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-15 15:30
Bet Victor🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.82%E -3.64%K -9.71%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-15 15:30
FanDuel🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.59%E -4.83%K -13.31%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.09%E -0.877%K -1.51%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-15 15:30
NordicBet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -7.59%E -4.83%K -13.31%G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05%NM 40.89%EV -6.61%E -2.91%K -5.21%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-06-15 15:29
Betsson🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -7.59%E -4.83%K -13.31%G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05%NM 40.89%EV -6.61%E -2.91%K -5.21%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-06-15 15:29
Sky Bet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.59%E -4.83%K -13.31%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.44%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-06-15 15:30
Paddy Power🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.59%E -4.83%K -13.31%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.44%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-06-15 15:30
Fliff🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -9.36%E -6.07%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.44%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-06-15 15:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%	4.8%	2026-06-15 15:30
Smarkets◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.10%	2.24I 44.64%NM 40.90%	9.2%	2026-06-15 15:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.65I 60.61%NM 38.66%	1.04I 96.15%NM 61.34%	56.8%	2026-06-15 15:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.65I 60.61%NM 38.66%	1.04I 96.15%NM 61.34%	56.8%	2026-06-15 15:30