Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lin Zhu v Sinja Kraus

Kickoff: 2026-06-15 10:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

43%

57%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lin Zhu (Local)

Prediction 42.96%2.33fair odd

EV -1.18%

Edge -0.515%

Kelly -0.911%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.57%44.75%42.41%55.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.722.082.152.3058.14%48.12%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sinja Kraus (Visit)

Prediction 57.04%1.75fair odd

EV +23.20%

Edge +10.74%

Kelly +20.00%

Growth +4.64%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.62%55.25%57.59%59.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.741.662.1663.69%57.32%60.24%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lin Zhu (Local): 42.96%; Sinja Kraus (Visit): 57.04%. For Sinja Kraus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -25.24%E -14.51%K -34.11%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV +23.20%E +10.74%K +20.00%G +4.64%	3.8%	2026-06-15 09:40
William Hill🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -25.67%E -14.84%K -35.17%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +19.78%E +9.42%K +17.98%G +3.56%	5.4%	2026-06-15 10:14
PlayUp🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -26.10%E -15.18%K -36.25%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV +19.78%E +9.42%K +17.98%G +3.56%	5.8%	2026-06-15 10:15
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -23.52%E -13.22%K -30.16%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV +19.21%E +9.19%K +17.62%G +3.38%	4.0%	2026-06-15 09:34
LowVig.ag🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -23.52%E -13.22%K -30.16%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV +19.21%E +9.19%K +17.62%G +3.38%	4.0%	2026-06-15 09:34
ReBet🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -23.10%E -12.90%K -29.23%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV +16.35%E +8.02%K +15.73%G +2.57%	4.9%	2026-06-15 09:41
Bet Victor🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.04%E -1.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-15 10:20
Caesars🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.63%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.61%E -2.14%K -5.23%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-15 10:20
FanDuel🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -3.61%E -2.14%K -5.23%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-06-15 10:20
Sky Bet🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-06-15 10:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-06-15 10:20
Fliff🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -11.92%E -5.82%K -11.36%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-06-15 10:20
Betway🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.18%E -0.515%K -0.911%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-06-15 10:20
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -1.61%E -0.705%K -1.25%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -7.03%E -4.31%K -11.16%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-15 10:20
theScore Bet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.48%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.60%E -4.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-06-15 10:20
Coral🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.63%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -8.17%E -5.08%K -13.40%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-06-15 10:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.63%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -8.17%E -5.08%K -13.40%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-06-15 10:20
888sport🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-06-15 10:20
888sport (SE)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-06-15 10:20
TAB🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.48%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.74%E -5.46%K -14.57%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-15 10:20
BoyleSports🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -1.18%E -0.515%K -0.911%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -10.45%E -6.66%K -18.34%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-06-15 10:20
Paddy Power🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -10.45%E -6.66%K -18.34%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-06-15 10:21
Betsson🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -5.48%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -10.45%E -6.66%K -18.34%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-06-15 10:20
NordicBet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -5.48%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -10.45%E -6.66%K -18.34%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-06-15 10:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13%	2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%	0.3%	2026-06-15 10:21
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%	0.5%	2026-06-15 10:21
Smarkets◎	2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%	1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02%	0.8%	2026-06-15 10:21
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%	1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%	1.2%	2026-06-15 10:20
Novig◎	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%	5.7%	2026-06-15 10:20