Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yue Yuan v Harriet Dart

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

80%

20%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yue Yuan (Local)

Prediction 79.64%1.26fair odd

EV +1.15%

Edge +0.905%

Kelly +4.25%

Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

77.03%79.49%79.86%80.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.151.181.171.2786.96%84.43%85.47%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Harriet Dart (Visit)

Prediction 20.36%4.91fair odd

EV -0.056%

Edge -0.011%

Kelly -0.014%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.60%20.51%20.14%22.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.004.414.264.9125.00%22.65%23.47%20.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yue Yuan (Local): 79.64%; Harriet Dart (Visit): 20.36%. For Yue Yuan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 77.03%EV +1.15%E +0.905%K +4.25%G +0.049%	4.26I 23.47%NM 22.97%EV -13.29%E -3.12%K -4.08%G +0.000%	2.2%	2026-05-18 13:09
Pinnacle🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.36%EV -4.43%E -3.69%K -22.13%G +0.000%	4.91I 20.37%NM 19.64%EV -0.056%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-18 13:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -4.43%E -3.69%K -22.13%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -13.49%E -3.17%K -4.15%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-18 13:20
NordicBet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 77.55%EV -5.22%E -4.39%K -27.49%G +0.000%	4.11I 24.33%NM 22.45%EV -16.34%E -3.98%K -5.25%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-05-18 13:20
BoyleSports🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.82%E -5.83%K -40.09%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -2.29%E -0.478%K -0.604%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-18 13:20
Marathon Bet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -6.82%E -5.83%K -40.09%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -4.33%E -0.921%K -1.17%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-18 13:09
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 77.52%EV -7.61%E -6.56%K -47.58%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -18.58%E -4.64%K -6.19%G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-05-18 13:10
Betway🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 79.65%EV -8.41%E -7.31%K -56.06%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -8.40%E -1.87%K -2.40%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-05-18 13:20
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 78.50%EV -8.41%E -7.31%K -56.06%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -14.51%E -3.45%K -4.53%G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-05-18 13:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 79.73%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.27%	2.8%	2026-05-18 13:10