Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Xinyu Gao v Harmony Tan

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Xinyu Gao (Local)

Prediction 55.86%1.79fair odd

EV -2.81%

Edge -1.61%

Kelly -3.80%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.28%55.69%55.86%56.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.611.691.701.7462.11%59.12%58.82%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Harmony Tan (Visit)

Prediction 44.14%2.27fair odd

EV -2.44%

Edge -1.11%

Kelly -2.02%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.48%44.31%44.14%46.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.952.082.052.2151.28%48.08%48.78%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Xinyu Gao (Local): 55.86%; Harmony Tan (Visit): 44.14%. For Harmony Tan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.21, with an expected value of -2.44%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
NordicBet🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.81%E -1.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.51%E -4.64%K -9.05%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-20 14:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.51%E -4.64%K -9.05%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-05-20 14:49
Fliff🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -13.92%E -7.14%K -14.65%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-05-20 14:49
Pinnacle🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.52%EV -5.04%E -2.97%K -7.20%G +0.000%	2.21I 45.25%NM 43.48%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.02%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-05-20 14:49
PlayUp🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.04%E -2.97%K -7.20%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-20 14:49
Betway🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-20 14:48
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 56.01%EV -10.07%E -6.25%K -16.51%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -9.51%E -4.64%K -9.05%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-05-20 14:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.72I 58.14%NM 56.57%	2.24I 44.64%NM 43.43%	2.8%	2026-05-20 14:49
Novig◎	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%	3.9%	2026-05-20 14:49