Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sloane Stephens v Lisa Pigato

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

53%

47%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sloane Stephens (Local)

Prediction 52.88%1.89fair odd

EV +27.96%

Edge +11.55%

Kelly +19.69%

Growth +5.51%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.50%50.38%52.88%56.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.671.841.752.4259.88%54.20%57.14%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lisa Pigato (Visit)

Prediction 47.12%2.12fair odd

EV +1.32%

Edge +0.612%

Kelly +1.14%

Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.72%49.62%47.12%60.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.581.931.962.1563.29%51.77%51.15%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sloane Stephens (Local): 52.88%; Lisa Pigato (Visit): 47.12%. For Sloane Stephens (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV +27.96%E +11.55%K +19.69%G +5.51%	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -25.54%E -16.17%K -44.04%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-20 09:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.41%E -3.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.75%E -2.88%K -5.75%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-20 09:49
NordicBet🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -7.47%E -4.27%K -9.95%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -7.64%E -3.90%K -7.96%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-20 09:49
Betway🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.47%E -4.27%K -9.95%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.11%E -4.16%K -8.54%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-05-20 09:49
Fliff🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -9.58%E -5.60%K -13.49%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -8.11%E -4.16%K -8.54%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-05-20 09:49
BoyleSports🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -11.70%E -7.00%K -17.46%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV +1.32%E +0.612%K +1.14%G +0.015%	6.4%	2026-05-20 09:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%	7.1%	2026-05-20 09:49