Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sinja Kraus v Noma Noha Akugue

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 08:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sinja Kraus (Local)

Prediction 66.56%1.50fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -4.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.57%66.57%66.58%66.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.401.4773.53%71.02%71.43%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Noma Noha Akugue (Visit)

Prediction 33.44%2.99fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -0.929%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.10%33.43%33.42%34.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.782.802.9137.74%35.93%35.71%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sinja Kraus (Local): 66.56%; Noma Noha Akugue (Visit): 33.44%. For Sinja Kraus (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.47, with an expected value of -2.15%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -2.15%E -1.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -6.38%E -2.28%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-19 10:20
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.90%EV -4.15%E -2.88%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.10%EV -2.70%E -0.929%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-20 04:49
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.48%E -3.86%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.71%E -1.65%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-20 07:49
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.48%E -3.86%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.38%E -2.28%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-19 16:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.82%EV -6.81%E -4.86%K -17.02%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.18%EV -5.71%E -2.03%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-20 04:59
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.81%E -4.86%K -17.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.38%E -2.28%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-19 10:20
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.81%E -4.86%K -17.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.05%E -2.93%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-20 04:29
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.81%E -4.86%K -17.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.05%E -2.93%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-20 04:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.92%EV -8.81%E -6.43%K -23.80%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.08%EV -11.40%E -4.30%K -6.91%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-20 07:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.50%EV -9.47%E -6.96%K -26.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.50%EV -9.72%E -3.60%K -5.72%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-20 05:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%1.3%2026-05-20 07:49
Smarkets1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%2.3%2026-05-20 07:49