Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sinja Kraus v Anna-Lena Friedsam

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 09:13 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sinja Kraus (Local)

Prediction 71.86%1.39fair odd

EV -4.43%

Edge -3.33%

Kelly -13.41%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.93%72.09%72.06%76.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.211.291.301.3382.64%77.45%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Anna-Lena Friedsam (Visit)

Prediction 28.14%3.55fair odd

EV +9.46%

Edge +2.43%

Kelly +3.28%

Growth +0.310%

assuming max odds 3.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.73%27.91%27.94%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.203.403.343.8931.25%29.37%29.94%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sinja Kraus (Local): 71.86%; Anna-Lena Friedsam (Visit): 28.14%. For Anna-Lena Friedsam (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
NordicBet🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 76.27%EV -13.05%E -10.78%K -62.14%G +0.000%	3.89I 25.71%NM 23.73%EV +9.46%E +2.43%K +3.28%G +0.310%	8.4%	2026-05-21 09:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -8.74%E -6.88%K -32.36%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV +1.30%E +0.362%K +0.502%G +0.007%	6.5%	2026-05-21 09:09
Pinnacle🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.41%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.41%G +0.000%	3.49I 28.65%NM 27.59%EV -1.79%E -0.513%K -0.719%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-21 09:10
PlayUp🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.41%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -5.73%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-21 09:08
GTbets🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.41%G +0.000%	3.34I 29.94%NM 28.48%EV -6.01%E -1.80%K -2.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-21 08:59
Fliff🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -8.74%E -6.88%K -32.36%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-21 09:10
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 72.06%EV -9.46%E -7.51%K -36.37%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -8.54%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-05-21 09:01
Marathon Bet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 70.93%EV -5.14%E -3.90%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 29.07%EV -9.39%E -2.92%K -4.23%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-21 08:59
Betway🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.95%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-21 09:08

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%	3.0%	2026-05-21 09:00
Novig◎	1.27I 78.74%NM 76.13%	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.87%	3.4%	2026-05-21 09:10