Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Robin Montgomery v Maddison Inglis

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Robin Montgomery (Local)

Prediction 71.66%1.40fair odd

EV -2.54%

Edge -1.87%

Kelly -7.06%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.18%71.71%71.67%72.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.261.311.301.3679.37%76.60%76.92%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maddison Inglis (Visit)

Prediction 28.34%3.53fair odd

EV -3.08%

Edge -0.901%

Kelly -1.27%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.51%28.29%28.33%29.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.203.293.283.4231.25%30.37%30.49%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Robin Montgomery (Local): 71.66%; Maddison Inglis (Visit): 28.34%. For Robin Montgomery (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.36, with an expected value of -2.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
PlayUp🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -2.54%E -1.87%K -7.06%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-19 09:10
Pinnacle🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 71.85%EV -3.97%E -2.97%K -11.69%G +0.000%	3.42I 29.24%NM 28.15%EV -3.08%E -0.901%K -1.27%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-19 09:10
GTbets🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.76%EV -4.69%E -3.53%K -14.22%G +0.000%	3.38I 29.59%NM 28.24%EV -4.21%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-19 09:09
Marathon Bet🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.46%EV -6.12%E -4.68%K -19.76%G +0.000%	3.28I 30.49%NM 28.54%EV -7.05%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-19 09:39
BoyleSports🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.84%E -5.26%K -22.80%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-19 09:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.56%E -5.86%K -26.06%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.65%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-19 09:10
Betway🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -7.56%E -5.86%K -26.06%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -7.90%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-19 09:38
Fliff🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -8.99%E -7.08%K -33.30%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -6.48%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-19 09:40
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 71.75%EV -9.71%E -7.70%K -37.34%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-05-19 09:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.