Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rebecca Sramkova v Francisca Jorge

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

81%

19%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rebecca Sramkova (Local)

Prediction 81.41%1.23fair odd

EV +0.138%

Edge +0.112%

Kelly +0.598%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

77.43%81.20%81.41%82.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.121.161.141.2389.29%86.30%87.72%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Francisca Jorge (Visit)

Prediction 18.59%5.38fair odd

EV -2.42%

Edge -0.460%

Kelly -0.569%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.58%18.80%18.59%22.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.224.854.935.2523.70%20.63%20.28%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rebecca Sramkova (Local): 81.41%; Francisca Jorge (Visit): 18.59%. For Rebecca Sramkova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.228. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.230, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.138%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.43%EV +0.138%E +0.112%K +0.598%G +0.001%	4.22I 23.70%NM 22.57%EV -21.56%E -5.11%K -6.70%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-20 16:49
PlayUp🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.30%E -1.92%K -11.52%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -14.50%E -3.15%K -4.03%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-20 17:00
Pinnacle🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.81%EV -3.12%E -2.62%K -16.42%G +0.000%	5.01I 19.96%NM 19.19%EV -6.88%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-05-20 17:00
theScore Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -7.19%E -6.31%K -51.35%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -3.35%E -0.643%K -0.797%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-20 17:09
Fliff🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 80.97%EV -7.19%E -6.31%K -51.35%G +0.000%	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.03%EV -9.85%E -2.03%K -2.56%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-20 17:09
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 79.57%EV -8.00%E -7.08%K -61.57%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -18.22%E -4.14%K -5.36%G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-05-20 16:55
Betway🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -8.82%E -7.87%K -73.48%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -2.42%E -0.460%K -0.569%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-20 17:10
NordicBet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -8.82%E -7.87%K -73.48%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -2.42%E -0.460%K -0.569%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-20 17:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.21I 82.64%NM 80.52%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.48%	2.6%	2026-05-20 17:00