Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Polina Kudermetova v Viktoriya Tomova

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Polina Kudermetova (Local)

Prediction 70.52%1.42fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -9.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.51%70.43%70.78%71.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.341.341.3778.13%74.74%74.63%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Viktoriya Tomova (Visit)

Prediction 29.48%3.39fair odd
EV +0.530%
Edge +0.156%
Kelly +0.220%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.21%29.57%29.22%31.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.103.103.4134.48%32.23%32.26%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Polina Kudermetova (Local): 70.52%; Viktoriya Tomova (Visit): 29.48%. For Viktoriya Tomova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.41, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.530%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.79%EV -5.50%E -4.11%K -16.19%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.21%EV +0.530%E +0.156%K +0.220%G +0.001%4.0%2026-05-20 15:30
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.21%E -4.67%K -18.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.19%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-20 08:59
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.09%E -3.01%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -5.66%E -1.77%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-20 15:40
GTbets🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.78%EV -4.09%E -3.01%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.22%EV -7.43%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-20 11:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -5.50%E -4.11%K -16.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -8.61%E -2.78%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-20 15:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.78%EV -9.74%E -7.61%K -34.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -8.61%E -2.78%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-20 12:29
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.09%E -3.01%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.56%E -3.85%K -5.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-20 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.51%EV -3.39%E -2.47%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.49%EV -12.15%E -4.08%K -6.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-20 15:30
Fliff🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.93%EV -6.21%E -4.67%K -18.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -13.03%E -4.42%K -6.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-20 15:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.88%EV -7.62%E -5.82%K -24.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -14.50%E -5.00%K -7.63%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-20 14:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.02%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.98%2.1%2026-05-20 15:10
Novig1.33I 75.19%NM 71.70%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.30%4.9%2026-05-20 14:49