Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Polina Iatcenko v Carole Monnet

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

34%

66%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Polina Iatcenko (Local)

Prediction 33.82%2.96fair odd

EV +4.84%

Edge +1.56%

Kelly +2.30%

Growth +0.111%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

30.02%33.33%33.82%35.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.602.862.883.1038.46%34.99%34.72%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carole Monnet (Visit)

Prediction 66.18%1.51fair odd

EV -1.39%

Edge -0.932%

Kelly -2.83%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.36%66.67%66.18%69.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.401.371.4975.19%71.53%72.99%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Polina Iatcenko (Local): 33.82%; Carole Monnet (Visit): 66.18%. For Polina Iatcenko (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +4.84%E +1.56%K +2.30%G +0.111%	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -11.98%E -9.01%K -36.30%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-18 09:55
NordicBet🎯	3.01I 33.22%NM 31.28%EV +1.79%E +0.596%K +0.892%G +0.016%	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.72%EV -9.33%E -6.81%K -25.22%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-18 09:55
BoyleSports🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -2.60%E -0.904%K -1.38%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.99%E -7.35%K -27.76%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-18 08:15
Pinnacle🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -8.69%E -3.22%K -5.11%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -1.39%E -0.932%K -2.83%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-05-18 09:56
Betway🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -12.07%E -4.64%K -7.55%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.70%E -3.26%K -10.68%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-18 09:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.