Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nuria Brancaccio v Kaitlin Quevedo

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nuria Brancaccio (Local)

Prediction 33.52%2.98fair odd
EV +5.60%
Edge +1.78%
Kelly +2.60%
Growth +0.146%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.62%33.68%33.21%38.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.752.753.1542.55%36.33%36.36%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kaitlin Quevedo (Visit)

Prediction 66.48%1.50fair odd
EV -0.284%
Edge -0.189%
Kelly -0.568%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.04%66.32%66.79%69.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.411.421.5075.19%70.83%70.42%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nuria Brancaccio (Local): 33.52%; Kaitlin Quevedo (Visit): 66.48%. For Nuria Brancaccio (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV +5.60%E +1.78%K +2.60%G +0.146%1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -7.60%E -5.47%K -19.48%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-19 11:05
Pinnacle🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -0.103%E -0.034%K -0.052%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -5.60%E -3.95%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-19 11:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.17%EV -2.45%E -0.842%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.83%EV -8.26%E -5.99%K -21.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-19 11:02
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.78%E -0.960%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.60%E -3.95%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-19 11:08
NetBet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.80%EV -11.59%E -8.71%K -35.11%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-19 11:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.76%EV -7.81%E -2.84%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 67.24%EV -10.92%E -8.15%K -32.12%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-19 11:03
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.49%E -3.51%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.93%E -4.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-19 11:09
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -12.17%E -4.65%K -7.51%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.27%E -2.97%K -9.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-19 11:10
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -12.84%E -4.94%K -8.03%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -3.61%E -2.49%K -8.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-19 11:10
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -15.52%E -6.16%K -10.21%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%EV -2.94%E -2.02%K -6.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-19 11:10
Fliff🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -21.22%E -9.03%K -15.72%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -0.284%E -0.189%K -0.568%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-19 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%6.2%2026-05-19 11:10