Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mona Barthel v Anna-Lena Friedsam

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 13:32 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mona Barthel (Local)

Prediction 49.40%2.02fair odd
EV +3.73%
Edge +1.78%
Kelly +3.39%
Growth +0.126%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.00%48.62%49.47%50.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.951.912.1055.56%51.34%52.36%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Anna-Lena Friedsam (Visit)

Prediction 50.60%1.98fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -2.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.34%51.38%50.53%56.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.791.811.9360.61%55.73%55.25%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mona Barthel (Local): 49.40%; Anna-Lena Friedsam (Visit): 50.60%. For Mona Barthel (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.02. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV +3.73%E +1.78%K +3.39%G +0.126%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -16.50%E -10.00%K -25.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-18 13:30
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%EV +2.74%E +1.32%K +2.54%G +0.070%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -15.49%E -9.28%K -23.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-18 13:31
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV +1.26%E +0.615%K +1.20%G +0.015%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -16.50%E -10.00%K -25.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-18 13:31
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -4.67%E -2.42%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -2.33%E -1.21%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-18 13:25
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.65%E -2.96%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.39%E -4.04%K -8.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-18 13:30
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.65%E -2.96%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -8.91%E -4.95%K -11.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-18 13:30
GTbets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -7.14%E -3.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -2.33%E -1.21%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-18 13:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.13%EV -7.63%E -4.08%K -8.77%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.87%EV -4.86%E -2.59%K -5.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-18 13:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -11.09%E -6.16%K -13.86%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.86%EV -8.41%E -4.64%K -10.38%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-18 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 48.97%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.03%2.6%2026-05-18 13:27