Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miriam Bulgaru v Guo Hanyu

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

30%

70%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miriam Bulgaru (Local)

Prediction 29.98%3.34fair odd

EV +1.92%

Edge +0.566%

Kelly +0.801%

Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.51%29.90%29.72%32.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.853.113.103.4035.09%32.19%32.21%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Guo Hanyu (Visit)

Prediction 70.02%1.43fair odd

EV -3.37%

Edge -2.44%

Kelly -8.87%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.92%70.10%70.28%72.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.291.341.351.3877.52%74.56%73.80%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miriam Bulgaru (Local): 29.98%; Guo Hanyu (Visit): 70.02%. For Miriam Bulgaru (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +1.92%E +0.566%K +0.801%G +0.015%	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -9.67%E -7.50%K -33.35%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-18 08:10
Pinnacle🎯	3.24I 30.86%NM 29.72%EV -2.87%E -0.887%K -1.28%G +0.000%	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.28%EV -4.07%E -2.97%K -11.00%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-18 06:26
Betway🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -4.07%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.97%E -6.90%K -29.90%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-18 08:20
GTbets🎯	3.11I 32.15%NM 30.73%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.27%EV -3.37%E -2.44%K -8.87%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-18 01:30
PlayUp🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -7.07%E -2.28%K -3.37%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.37%E -2.44%K -8.87%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-18 06:05
NordicBet🎯	3.07I 32.57%NM 30.54%EV -7.97%E -2.60%K -3.85%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.47%E -4.05%K -15.63%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-18 08:10
BoyleSports🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -13.67%E -4.74%K -7.27%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -4.77%E -3.51%K -13.25%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-18 00:00
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.33%EV -14.56%E -5.11%K -7.87%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 68.67%EV -8.97%E -6.90%K -29.90%G +0.000%	12.0%	2026-05-18 04:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%	3.8%	2026-05-18 08:00