Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mayar Sherif v Martina Trevisan

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mayar Sherif (Local)

Prediction 72.21%1.38fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -11.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.98%71.98%72.10%73.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.301.311.3380.00%76.69%76.05%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Martina Trevisan (Visit)

Prediction 27.79%3.60fair odd
EV -0.520%
Edge -0.145%
Kelly -0.202%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.93%28.02%27.90%30.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.323.313.5832.26%30.10%30.21%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mayar Sherif (Local): 72.21%; Martina Trevisan (Visit): 27.79%. For Martina Trevisan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.58, with an expected value of -0.520%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.96%E -2.98%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -5.52%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-20 08:19
GTbets🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.40%EV -3.96%E -2.98%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.60%EV -7.75%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-19 09:20
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.96%E -2.98%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -13.86%E -4.47%K -6.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-19 21:20
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.06%EV -4.68%E -3.55%K -14.62%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.94%EV -0.520%E -0.145%K -0.202%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-20 08:49
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.30%EV -4.68%E -3.55%K -14.62%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.70%EV -8.86%E -2.70%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 09:49
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.40%E -4.12%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.30%E -2.52%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-20 09:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -6.12%E -4.71%K -20.41%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.02%EV -7.19%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-20 08:39
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.85%E -5.31%K -23.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -2.74%E -0.784%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-19 21:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 71.43%EV -9.01%E -7.15%K -34.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -12.47%E -3.96%K -5.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-20 08:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.22%EV -9.73%E -7.79%K -38.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -9.69%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-19 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%3.5%2026-05-20 09:49