Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mayar Sherif v Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

54%

46%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mayar Sherif (Local)

Prediction 53.75%1.86fair odd

EV +2.67%

Edge +1.40%

Kelly +2.93%

Growth +0.078%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

48.52%53.10%53.77%55.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.631.761.761.9161.35%56.90%56.82%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Andrea Lazaro Garcia (Visit)

Prediction 46.25%2.16fair odd

EV -1.96%

Edge -0.923%

Kelly -1.75%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.90%46.90%46.23%51.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.802.002.002.1255.56%50.09%50.00%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mayar Sherif (Local): 53.75%; Andrea Lazaro Garcia (Visit): 46.25%. For Mayar Sherif (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.91, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BoyleSports🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV +2.67%E +1.40%K +2.93%G +0.078%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -16.76%E -9.31%K -20.95%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-18 12:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%EV -4.86%E -2.74%K -6.31%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%EV -1.96%E -0.923%K -1.75%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-18 12:11
GTbets🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -4.86%E -2.74%K -6.31%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -4.27%E -2.06%K -3.99%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-18 12:09
theScore Bet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.86%E -2.74%K -6.31%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.51%E -3.75%K -7.51%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-18 12:55
NordicBet🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -5.93%E -3.39%K -7.91%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -9.36%E -4.77%K -9.75%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-18 12:55
Betway🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.93%E -3.39%K -7.91%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.82%E -5.04%K -10.34%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-05-18 12:55
Marathon Bet🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -8.08%E -4.73%K -11.38%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -4.27%E -2.06%K -3.99%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-18 12:38
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 55.10%EV -12.38%E -7.60%K -19.65%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -7.51%E -3.75%K -7.51%G +0.000%	11.3%	2026-05-18 12:11

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.