Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marina Bassols Ribera v Karolina Pliskova

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

25%

75%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marina Bassols Ribera (Local)

Prediction 24.83%4.03fair odd

EV +1.81%

Edge +0.441%

Kelly +0.583%

Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

22.79%24.54%24.83%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.643.833.834.1027.47%26.09%26.14%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Karolina Pliskova (Visit)

Prediction 75.17%1.33fair odd

EV -3.78%

Edge -2.96%

Kelly -13.52%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

74.29%75.46%75.17%77.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.251.251.2883.33%80.21%79.68%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marina Bassols Ribera (Local): 24.83%; Karolina Pliskova (Visit): 75.17%. For Marina Bassols Ribera (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV +1.81%E +0.441%K +0.583%G +0.011%	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -9.05%E -7.48%K -43.08%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-20 11:58
Pinnacle🎯	3.91I 25.58%NM 24.66%EV -2.91%E -0.744%K -1.000%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.34%EV -3.78%E -2.96%K -13.52%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-20 11:59
Fliff🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -3.16%E -0.810%K -1.09%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -9.80%E -8.16%K -48.99%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-20 11:55
Betway🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.88%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.04%E -4.83%K -24.16%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-20 11:59
PlayUp🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -8.12%E -2.20%K -3.01%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.78%E -2.96%K -13.52%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-05-20 11:59
Marathon Bet🎯	3.64I 27.47%NM 25.71%EV -9.61%E -2.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.29%EV -5.29%E -4.20%K -20.34%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-20 11:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76%	2.9%	2026-05-20 11:59
Novig◎	3.89I 25.71%NM 24.76%	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.24%	3.8%	2026-05-20 11:57