Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manon Léonard v Himeno Sakatsume

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 08:14 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

17%

83%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manon Léonard (Local)

Prediction 16.71%5.98fair odd

EV +0.252%

Edge +0.042%

Kelly +0.050%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.49%16.62%16.76%18.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.005.515.586.0020.00%18.14%17.92%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Himeno Sakatsume (Visit)

Prediction 83.29%1.20fair odd

EV -2.55%

Edge -2.18%

Kelly -15.00%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

81.04%83.38%83.24%84.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.081.131.131.1792.59%88.50%88.50%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manon Léonard (Local): 16.71%; Himeno Sakatsume (Visit): 83.29%. For Manon Léonard (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.98. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.252%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BoyleSports🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV +0.252%E +0.042%K +0.050%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.38%E -7.62%K -83.80%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-18 08:10
Pinnacle🎯	5.76I 17.36%NM 16.76%EV -3.76%E -0.652%K -0.789%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 83.24%EV -3.38%E -2.92%K -21.14%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-05-18 08:10
Betway🎯	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -3.92%E -0.683%K -0.826%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 83.94%EV -8.38%E -7.62%K -83.80%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-18 08:09
GTbets🎯	5.58I 17.92%NM 17.33%EV -6.77%E -1.21%K -1.48%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.67%EV -2.55%E -2.18%K -15.00%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-05-18 07:59
theScore Bet🎯	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -9.77%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -5.88%E -5.20%K -45.24%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-18 08:10
NetBet (FR)🎯	5.10I 19.61%NM 17.48%EV -14.79%E -2.90%K -3.61%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 82.52%EV -10.05%E -9.30%K -125.57%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-05-18 07:59
PlayUp🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.46%E -3.29%K -4.11%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.55%E -2.18%K -15.00%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-18 07:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%	4.4%	2026-05-18 08:00