Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maja Chwalinska v Suzan Lamens

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 09:13 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

74%

26%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maja Chwalinska (Local)

Prediction 74.30%1.35fair odd

EV +1.04%

Edge +0.768%

Kelly +2.90%

Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.00%73.96%74.85%78.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.181.281.281.3684.75%78.31%78.13%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Suzan Lamens (Visit)

Prediction 25.70%3.89fair odd

EV +12.83%

Edge +2.92%

Kelly +3.79%

Growth +0.486%

assuming max odds 4.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.89%26.04%25.15%32.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.893.603.714.3934.60%27.78%26.95%22.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maja Chwalinska (Local): 74.30%; Suzan Lamens (Visit): 25.70%. For Suzan Lamens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.39, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 78.11%EV -8.61%E -7.00%K -37.45%G +0.000%	4.39I 22.78%NM 21.89%EV +12.83%E +2.92%K +3.79%G +0.486%	4.1%	2026-05-21 09:10
PlayUp🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -9.36%E -7.67%K -42.53%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +10.52%E +2.45%K +3.19%G +0.335%	5.2%	2026-05-21 09:08
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 76.77%EV -12.33%E -10.45%K -68.49%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV +0.240%E +0.061%K +0.083%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-05-21 09:01
GTbets🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -2.67%E -2.04%K -8.61%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -3.62%E -0.964%K -1.31%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-05-21 08:59
Marathon Bet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.85%EV -7.13%E -5.70%K -28.51%G +0.000%	3.72I 26.88%NM 25.15%EV -4.39%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-21 08:59
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -7.87%E -6.35%K -32.80%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-21 09:09
theScore Bet🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -2.67%E -2.04%K -8.61%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -16.47%E -5.07%K -7.32%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-21 09:09
Fliff🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 70.29%EV -2.67%E -2.04%K -8.61%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -20.32%E -6.56%K -9.68%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-21 09:10
Betway🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV +1.04%E +0.768%K +2.90%G +0.030%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -22.89%E -7.63%K -11.45%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-21 09:09
NordicBet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV +1.04%E +0.768%K +2.90%G +0.030%	2.89I 34.60%NM 32.00%EV -25.72%E -8.90%K -13.61%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-21 09:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 77.88%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12%	2.7%	2026-05-21 09:00
Novig◎	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%	7.1%	2026-05-21 09:10