Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lulu Sun v Aoi Ito

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 13:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

71%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lulu Sun (Local)

Prediction 70.67%1.42fair odd

EV -3.89%

Edge -2.86%

Kelly -10.82%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.81%70.94%70.38%75.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.221.301.311.3681.97%77.04%76.05%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aoi Ito (Visit)

Prediction 29.33%3.41fair odd

EV +12.64%

Edge +3.29%

Kelly +4.45%

Growth +0.563%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.41%29.06%29.62%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.003.293.233.8433.33%30.42%30.96%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lulu Sun (Local): 70.67%; Aoi Ito (Visit): 29.33%. For Aoi Ito (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.59%EV -12.37%E -9.98%K -51.56%G +0.000%	3.84I 26.04%NM 24.41%EV +12.64%E +3.29%K +4.45%G +0.563%	6.7%	2026-05-20 04:48
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 73.88%EV -13.79%E -11.30%K -62.67%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV +1.20%E +0.349%K +0.491%G +0.006%	11.0%	2026-05-20 13:39
Pinnacle🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.64%EV -6.01%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%	3.36I 29.76%NM 28.36%EV -1.44%E -0.428%K -0.609%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-05-20 13:50
PlayUp🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.01%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -3.20%E -0.969%K -1.39%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-20 13:44
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 72.22%EV -11.67%E -9.33%K -46.67%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -4.66%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-05-20 13:39
NordicBet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.18%EV -8.13%E -6.26%K -27.11%G +0.000%	3.21I 31.15%NM 28.82%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-20 13:49
Fliff🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 71.27%EV -8.84%E -6.85%K -30.49%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -6.13%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-20 13:49
Marathon Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.38%EV -6.01%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%	3.16I 31.65%NM 29.62%EV -7.30%E -2.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-20 13:39
theScore Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.01%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.32%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-20 13:49
Betway🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.89%E -2.86%K -10.82%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.00%E -4.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-20 13:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.91%	3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%	2.9%	2026-05-20 13:49
Smarkets◎	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.51%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%	3.2%	2026-05-20 13:45