Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luisina Giovannini v Eva Guerrero Alvarez

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luisina Giovannini (Local)

Prediction 83.40%1.20fair odd
EV +4.25%
Edge +3.40%
Kelly +17.01%
Growth +0.724%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.19%83.68%83.40%89.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.141.111.2594.34%88.05%90.09%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Eva Guerrero Alvarez (Visit)

Prediction 16.60%6.03fair odd
EV +49.37%
Edge +5.49%
Kelly +6.17%
Growth +3.05%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.54%16.32%16.60%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.005.815.769.0025.00%17.22%17.36%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luisina Giovannini (Local): 83.40%; Eva Guerrero Alvarez (Visit): 16.60%. For Eva Guerrero Alvarez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.03. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +49.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -11.59%E -10.94%K -193.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +49.37%E +5.49%K +6.17%G +3.05%5.5%2026-05-19 09:50
Fliff🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.06%EV -9.92%E -9.19%K -124.06%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 14.94%EV +2.07%E +0.337%K +0.402%G +0.008%8.9%2026-05-19 09:50
theScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.42%E -6.69%K -67.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -0.417%E -0.070%K -0.083%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-19 09:50
NordicBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.97%EV -8.26%E -7.51%K -82.57%G +0.000%5.76I 17.36%NM 16.03%EV -4.40%E -0.764%K -0.924%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-19 09:50
Betway🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -6.59%E -5.88%K -54.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -12.87%E -2.45%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-19 09:50
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.46%EV +2.59%E +2.10%K +11.24%G +0.291%4.48I 22.32%NM 21.54%EV -25.64%E -5.72%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-19 09:10
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV +4.25%E +3.40%K +17.01%G +0.724%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -33.61%E -8.40%K -11.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-19 09:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.00I 100.00%NM 86.88%6.62I 15.11%NM 13.12%15.1%2026-05-19 09:50