Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lucia Bronzetti v Lucrezia Stefanini

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

63%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lucia Bronzetti (Local)

Prediction 63.09%1.59fair odd

EV -4.10%

Edge -2.70%

Kelly -7.89%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.50%63.34%63.14%64.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.431.471.471.5269.93%67.97%68.03%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lucrezia Stefanini (Visit)

Prediction 36.91%2.71fair odd

EV -1.08%

Edge -0.404%

Kelly -0.645%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.05%36.66%36.86%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.452.562.552.6840.82%38.99%39.22%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lucia Bronzetti (Local): 63.09%; Lucrezia Stefanini (Visit): 36.91%. For Lucrezia Stefanini (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.68, with an expected value of -1.08%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -4.10%E -2.70%K -7.89%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -3.30%E -1.26%K -2.04%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-05-20 16:00
PlayUp🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.10%E -2.70%K -7.89%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.88%E -2.31%K -3.79%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-20 16:50
Betway🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.36%E -3.58%K -10.73%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.73%E -3.09%K -5.15%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-20 16:00
Marathon Bet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.84%EV -5.99%E -4.02%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -6.99%E -2.77%K -4.60%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-20 16:40
NordicBet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.89%EV -8.52%E -5.87%K -18.93%G +0.000%	2.68I 37.31%NM 35.11%EV -1.08%E -0.404%K -0.645%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-20 16:50
theScore Bet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -9.78%E -6.84%K -22.74%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -2.19%E -0.827%K -1.33%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-20 16:00
Fliff🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -9.78%E -6.84%K -22.74%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -5.88%E -2.31%K -3.79%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-05-20 16:50
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 63.14%EV -9.78%E -6.84%K -22.74%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 36.86%EV -9.57%E -3.91%K -6.60%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-05-20 16:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 63.18%	2.66I 37.59%NM 36.82%	2.1%	2026-05-20 16:50