La escuela de los momios

Linda Fruhvirtova v Elsa Jacquemot

Inicio: 2026-05-26 14:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Linda Fruhvirtova (Local)

Predicción 52.82%1.89momio equitativo
EV +11.45%
Ventaja +5.42%
Kelly +10.31%
Crecimiento +1.18%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.11

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.17%52.65%52.70%58.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.871.802.1161.73%53.59%55.56%47.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Elsa Jacquemot (Visitante)

Predicción 47.18%2.12momio equitativo
EV +6.16%
Ventaja +2.74%
Kelly +4.93%
Crecimiento +0.304%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.86%47.35%47.30%54.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.701.911.912.2558.82%52.43%52.36%44.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.11I 47.39%NM 46.04%EV +11.45%E +5.42%K +10.31%G +1.18%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.96%EV -15.07%E -8.37%K -18.84%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-26 13:10
BetAnything2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV +10.92%E +5.20%K +9.93%G +1.08%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -16.49%E -9.32%K -21.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-26 13:20
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +10.92%E +5.20%K +9.93%G +1.08%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -18.38%E -10.62%K -25.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-26 13:10
LowVig.ag2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV +9.33%E +4.51%K +8.72%G +0.814%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -15.54%E -8.68%K -19.68%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-26 13:10
BetOnline.ag2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV +9.33%E +4.51%K +8.72%G +0.814%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -15.54%E -8.68%K -19.68%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-26 13:09
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV +8.28%E +4.04%K +7.88%G +0.652%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -16.49%E -9.32%K -21.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-26 13:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV +8.28%E +4.04%K +7.88%G +0.652%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -16.49%E -9.32%K -21.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-26 13:10
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV +6.69%E +3.31%K +6.56%G +0.439%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -15.54%E -8.68%K -19.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-26 13:50
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV +6.69%E +3.31%K +6.56%G +0.439%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -15.54%E -8.68%K -19.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-26 13:50
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV +6.69%E +3.31%K +6.56%G +0.439%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -15.54%E -8.68%K -19.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-26 13:50
Svenska Spel2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV +6.69%E +3.31%K +6.56%G +0.439%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -15.54%E -8.68%K -19.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-26 13:50
betPARX2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV +6.69%E +3.31%K +6.56%G +0.439%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -15.54%E -8.68%K -19.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-26 13:50
ATG (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV +6.69%E +3.31%K +6.56%G +0.439%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -15.54%E -8.68%K -19.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-26 13:50
Grosvenor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV +5.64%E +2.82%K +5.64%G +0.318%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -16.96%E -9.64%K -22.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 13:50
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV +5.64%E +2.82%K +5.64%G +0.318%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -16.96%E -9.64%K -22.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 13:50
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV +5.64%E +2.82%K +5.64%G +0.318%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -16.96%E -9.64%K -22.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 13:50
Bally Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV +5.64%E +2.82%K +5.64%G +0.318%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -16.96%E -9.64%K -22.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 13:50
PMU (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 46.96%EV +1.41%E +0.735%K +1.53%G +0.022%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -19.79%E -11.64%K -28.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-26 13:50
Hard Rock Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +0.882%E +0.462%K +0.970%G +0.009%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-26 13:50
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -2.29%E -1.24%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -12.71%E -6.87%K -14.96%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-26 13:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -3.34%E -1.83%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -13.66%E -7.46%K -16.45%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-26 13:50
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.87%E -2.13%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.64%E -2.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 13:50
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.64%E -2.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-26 13:50
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.00%E -4.10%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 13:50
BetMGM1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.00%E -4.10%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 13:50
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-26 13:50
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-26 13:50
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -4.93%E -2.74%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-26 13:50
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.51%E -3.68%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -0.918%E -0.437%K -0.834%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-26 13:49
TAB1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.51%E -3.68%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.28%E -1.60%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-26 13:50
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.51%E -3.68%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.64%E -2.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-26 13:50
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.51%E -3.68%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.64%E -2.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-26 13:50
Winamax (DE)1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -7.04%E -4.00%K -9.26%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -7.52%E -3.84%K -7.84%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-26 13:50
Betsson1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -7.04%E -4.00%K -9.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -8.00%E -4.10%K -8.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-26 13:50
NordicBet1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -7.04%E -4.00%K -9.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -8.00%E -4.10%K -8.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-26 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.57%E -4.32%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.64%E -2.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-26 13:50
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.57%E -4.32%K -10.09%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.00%E -4.10%K -8.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-26 13:50
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.57%E -4.32%K -10.09%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.00%E -4.10%K -8.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-26 13:50
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -8.10%E -4.65%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -2.33%E -1.13%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-26 13:50
Fliff1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -8.10%E -4.65%K -10.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -9.88%E -5.17%K -10.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-26 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.62%E -4.99%K -11.81%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -0.918%E -0.437%K -0.834%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-26 13:50
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -8.62%E -4.99%K -11.81%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -3.28%E -1.60%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-26 13:50
Betclic (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.42%EV -10.21%E -6.01%K -14.58%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.58%EV -4.22%E -2.08%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-26 13:49
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -10.21%E -6.01%K -14.58%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.22%EV -10.35%E -5.45%K -11.50%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-26 13:50
Caesars1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -11.79%E -7.06%K -17.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +3.80%E +1.73%K +3.17%G +0.120%5.3%2026-05-26 13:47
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -11.79%E -7.06%K -17.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -0.918%E -0.437%K -0.834%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-26 13:50
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -14.43%E -8.91%K -23.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +6.16%E +2.74%K +4.93%G +0.304%6.2%2026-05-26 13:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-05-26 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99%1.1%2026-05-26 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.24%1.5%2026-05-26 13:50
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 50.26%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.74%3.6%2026-05-26 13:50
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%4.2%2026-05-26 13:50
Novig1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%5.1%2026-05-26 13:50