Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leyre Romero Gormaz v Sloane Stephens

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 09:13 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

40%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leyre Romero Gormaz (Local)

Prediction 39.89%2.51fair odd

EV +3.70%

Edge +1.42%

Kelly +2.32%

Growth +0.086%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.80%39.42%39.89%42.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.392.402.6045.45%41.92%41.67%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sloane Stephens (Visit)

Prediction 60.11%1.66fair odd

EV -3.22%

Edge -2.00%

Kelly -5.27%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.89%60.58%60.11%64.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.451.541.561.6168.97%64.75%64.10%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leyre Romero Gormaz (Local): 39.89%; Sloane Stephens (Visit): 60.11%. For Leyre Romero Gormaz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV +3.70%E +1.42%K +2.32%G +0.086%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -12.83%E -8.85%K -28.52%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-21 09:09
NordicBet🎯	2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV +0.513%E +0.204%K +0.338%G +0.002%	1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%EV -12.23%E -8.38%K -26.60%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-21 09:10
GTbets🎯	2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56%EV -1.88%E -0.764%K -1.29%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44%EV -3.22%E -2.00%K -5.27%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-05-21 08:59
Pinnacle🎯	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -2.68%E -1.10%K -1.86%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -4.42%E -2.78%K -7.49%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-21 09:10
PlayUp🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.27%E -1.78%K -3.05%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.02%E -3.18%K -8.66%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-21 09:08
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.26%E -3.59%K -6.36%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.22%E -3.99%K -11.11%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-21 09:09
Fliff🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.26%E -3.59%K -6.36%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -8.03%E -5.25%K -15.14%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-21 09:10
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -10.26%E -4.56%K -8.20%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 59.68%EV -8.63%E -5.68%K -16.59%G +0.000%	10.2%	2026-05-21 09:01
Betway🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -12.25%E -5.57%K -10.21%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -3.82%E -2.39%K -6.36%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-21 09:08

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%	2.1%	2026-05-21 09:00