Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.29
assuming max odds 5.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kayla Day (Local): 75.89%; Oceane Dodin (Visit): 24.11%. For Oceane Dodin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.15. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.53%.
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -9.69%E -8.14%K -50.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV +20.53%E +4.11%K +5.13%G +1.05% | 4.0% | 2026-05-18 17:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -9.69%E -8.14%K -50.98%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +14.50%E +3.05%K +3.87%G +0.561% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 17:43 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.41%E -6.07%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.58%E -0.894%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-18 17:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.70%EV -8.93%E -7.44%K -44.63%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -4.78%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-18 17:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.15%EV -11.20%E -9.58%K -65.90%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.85%EV -4.78%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-18 17:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.15%EV -11.20%E -9.58%K -65.90%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.85%EV -4.78%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-18 17:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.12%EV -6.65%E -5.41%K -28.91%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 23.88%EV -5.51%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-18 17:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -4.37%E -3.47%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -15.63%E -4.47%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-18 17:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -5.13%E -4.11%K -20.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -15.63%E -4.47%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-18 17:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -2.10%E -1.63%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -18.04%E -5.31%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-18 17:45 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.20% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.80% | 3.1% | 2026-05-18 17:10 |