Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kathinka Von Deichmann v Joanna Garland

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

42%

58%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kathinka Von Deichmann (Local)

Prediction 41.54%2.41fair odd

EV +0.942%

Edge +0.388%

Kelly +0.659%

Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.70%41.89%40.90%45.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.252.252.4348.78%44.53%44.44%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Joanna Garland (Visit)

Prediction 58.46%1.71fair odd

EV -0.033%

Edge -0.020%

Kelly -0.047%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.52%58.11%59.10%60.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.511.611.601.7166.23%62.15%62.50%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kathinka Von Deichmann (Local): 41.54%; Joanna Garland (Visit): 58.46%. For Kathinka Von Deichmann (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.942%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV +0.942%E +0.388%K +0.659%G +0.006%	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -6.46%E -4.04%K -10.77%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-18 08:10
GTbets🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -0.304%E -0.127%K -0.217%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -6.46%E -4.04%K -10.77%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-05-18 07:59
PlayUp🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -2.38%E -1.01%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -7.63%E -4.83%K -13.16%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-18 07:59
Marathon Bet🎯	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -3.63%E -1.56%K -2.75%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -8.22%E -5.23%K -14.42%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-18 08:03
BoyleSports🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.53%E -2.90%K -5.23%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.22%E -5.23%K -14.42%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-18 08:10
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -8.61%E -3.91%K -7.18%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 59.30%EV -11.73%E -7.77%K -22.99%G +0.000%	11.7%	2026-05-18 07:59
NordicBet🎯	2.11I 47.39%NM 44.47%EV -12.35%E -5.85%K -11.13%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53%EV -1.20%E -0.712%K -1.74%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-18 08:25
Betway🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -12.77%E -6.08%K -11.61%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -3.54%E -2.15%K -5.45%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-18 08:25
theScore Bet🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -14.84%E -7.24%K -14.14%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -0.033%E -0.020%K -0.047%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-05-18 08:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%	1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%	2.3%	2026-05-18 08:00