Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kathinka Von Deichmann v Himeno Sakatsume

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

33%

67%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kathinka Von Deichmann (Local)

Prediction 32.99%3.03fair odd

EV +1.60%

Edge +0.521%

Kelly +0.772%

Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 3.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.19%32.78%33.03%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.752.892.903.0836.36%34.65%34.48%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Himeno Sakatsume (Visit)

Prediction 67.01%1.49fair odd

EV -3.50%

Edge -2.43%

Kelly -7.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.27%67.22%66.97%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.391.401.4475.19%71.79%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kathinka Von Deichmann (Local): 32.99%; Himeno Sakatsume (Visit): 67.01%. For Kathinka Von Deichmann (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.03. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	3.08I 32.47%NM 31.25%EV +1.60%E +0.521%K +0.772%G +0.012%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.75%EV -6.18%E -4.42%K -15.46%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-19 12:50
theScore Bet🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -1.03%E -0.345%K -0.517%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.86%E -6.52%K -24.62%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-19 09:39
Pinnacle🎯	2.92I 34.25%NM 33.03%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.91%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.97%EV -3.50%E -2.43%K -7.96%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-20 03:39
PlayUp🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.33%E -1.49%K -2.28%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.84%E -3.41%K -11.53%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-05-20 08:19
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 67.80%EV -10.87%E -8.18%K -32.95%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-05-20 03:18
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.30%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.18%E -4.42%K -15.46%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-20 09:49
BoyleSports🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.30%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.18%E -4.42%K -15.46%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-20 05:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.94I 34.01%NM 32.88%	1.44I 69.44%NM 67.12%	3.5%	2026-05-20 09:49