Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Katarina Zavatska v Lucia Bronzetti

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

42%

58%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Katarina Zavatska (Local)

Prediction 41.64%2.40fair odd

EV -2.13%

Edge -0.908%

Kelly -1.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.66%41.61%41.68%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.262.252.3545.45%44.25%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lucia Bronzetti (Visit)

Prediction 58.36%1.71fair odd

EV -2.55%

Edge -1.52%

Kelly -3.80%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.69%58.39%58.32%59.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.621.611.6763.69%61.90%62.11%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Katarina Zavatska (Local): 41.64%; Lucia Bronzetti (Visit): 58.36%. For Katarina Zavatska (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.35, with an expected value of -2.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Bovada🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.13%E -0.908%K -1.58%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -6.05%E -3.76%K -9.91%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-22 11:08
FanDuel🎯	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -3.38%E -1.46%K -2.56%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -6.63%E -4.14%K -11.05%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-22 11:00
Pinnacle🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -5.05%E -2.21%K -3.95%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -2.55%E -1.52%K -3.80%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-22 10:59
GTbets🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -5.88%E -2.60%K -4.67%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -3.71%E -2.25%K -5.71%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-05-22 10:59
NordicBet🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 41.60%EV -5.88%E -2.60%K -4.67%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.40%EV -6.05%E -3.76%K -9.91%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-22 11:10
PlayUp🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.30%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.71%E -2.25%K -5.71%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-22 10:56
theScore Bet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.30%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.05%E -3.76%K -9.91%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-22 11:10
Betway🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -6.30%E -2.80%K -5.04%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -7.22%E -4.54%K -12.23%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-05-22 11:00
Marathon Bet🎯	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.82%EV -6.72%E -3.00%K -5.42%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%EV -6.05%E -3.76%K -9.91%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-22 10:59
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.63%E -4.14%K -11.05%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-22 10:59
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -8.38%E -3.81%K -6.98%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.38%E -5.34%K -14.71%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-05-22 10:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%	0.9%	2026-05-22 11:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%	0.9%	2026-05-22 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%	0.9%	2026-05-22 11:10
Smarkets◎	2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29%	1.70I 58.82%NM 57.71%	1.9%	2026-05-22 11:10
Novig◎	2.31I 43.29%NM 41.96%	1.67I 59.88%NM 58.04%	3.2%	2026-05-22 11:10