Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kaja Juvan v Guiomar Maristany

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

62%

38%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kaja Juvan (Local)

Prediction 62.30%1.61fair odd

EV -2.82%

Edge -1.81%

Kelly -5.03%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.25%62.30%62.50%63.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.481.521.501.5667.57%65.96%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Guiomar Maristany (Visit)

Prediction 37.70%2.65fair odd

EV -4.23%

Edge -1.67%

Kelly -2.75%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.97%37.70%37.50%38.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.452.502.502.5440.82%40.03%40.00%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kaja Juvan (Local): 62.30%; Guiomar Maristany (Visit): 37.70%. For Kaja Juvan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.56, with an expected value of -2.82%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.82%E -1.81%K -5.03%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.74%E -2.30%K -3.83%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-05-20 09:59
PlayUp🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.44%E -2.22%K -6.25%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.63%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-20 09:59
Betway🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.55%E -4.37%K -13.11%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.74%E -2.30%K -3.83%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-20 09:58
NordicBet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.03%EV -7.18%E -4.82%K -14.65%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 36.97%EV -4.23%E -1.67%K -2.75%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-20 09:59
theScore Bet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.80%E -5.27%K -16.25%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -5.74%E -2.30%K -3.83%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-20 09:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 62.83%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.17%	2.7%	2026-05-20 09:59
Novig◎	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.71%	2.59I 38.61%NM 37.29%	3.5%	2026-05-20 09:58