Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Julia Riera v Robin Montgomery

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

24%

76%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Julia Riera (Local)

Prediction 23.98%4.17fair odd

EV +1.90%

Edge +0.448%

Kelly +0.586%

Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.73%23.98%23.37%26.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.553.843.784.2528.17%26.07%26.46%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Robin Montgomery (Visit)

Prediction 76.02%1.32fair odd

EV +0.350%

Edge +0.265%

Kelly +1.09%

Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

73.17%76.02%76.63%78.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.181.241.221.3284.75%80.91%81.97%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Julia Riera (Local): 23.98%; Robin Montgomery (Visit): 76.02%. For Julia Riera (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.90%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV +1.90%E +0.448%K +0.586%G +0.011%	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.27%EV -10.29%E -8.72%K -57.18%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-20 11:49
theScore Bet🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.09%E -1.02%K -1.36%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.25%E -5.94%K -32.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-20 11:49
NordicBet🎯	3.78I 26.46%NM 24.40%EV -9.37%E -2.48%K -3.37%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 75.60%EV -7.25%E -5.94%K -32.97%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-05-20 11:49
Pinnacle🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -13.68%E -3.80%K -5.26%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV +0.350%E +0.265%K +1.09%G +0.004%	3.5%	2026-05-20 11:49
Fliff🎯	3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -14.88%E -4.19%K -5.84%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 74.11%EV -5.73%E -4.62%K -23.88%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-20 11:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%	5.1%	2026-05-20 11:49