Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Julia Riera v Laura Samson

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

39%

61%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Julia Riera (Local)

Prediction 39.14%2.56fair odd

EV +0.978%

Edge +0.379%

Kelly +0.619%

Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.35%39.38%39.19%42.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.152.372.392.5846.51%42.25%41.84%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Laura Samson (Visit)

Prediction 60.86%1.64fair odd

EV -2.01%

Edge -1.25%

Kelly -3.30%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.18%60.62%60.81%62.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.451.551.541.6168.97%64.64%64.94%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Julia Riera (Local): 39.14%; Laura Samson (Visit): 60.86%. For Julia Riera (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.978%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.38%EV +0.978%E +0.379%K +0.619%G +0.006%	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.62%EV -6.27%E -4.07%K -11.62%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-19 09:10
PlayUp🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -0.196%E -0.077%K -0.126%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -7.49%E -4.93%K -14.41%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-19 09:40
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -6.07%E -2.53%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -11.75%E -8.10%K -26.11%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-05-19 09:10
Marathon Bet🎯	2.39I 41.84%NM 39.19%EV -6.46%E -2.70%K -4.65%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.81%EV -6.27%E -4.07%K -11.62%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-19 09:37
theScore Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.98%E -4.34%K -7.68%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.45%E -2.83%K -7.80%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-19 09:30
Betway🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -13.89%E -6.32%K -11.58%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -2.62%E -1.64%K -4.37%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-19 09:38
Fliff🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -15.85%E -7.37%K -13.78%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -2.01%E -1.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-19 09:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%	5.4%	2026-05-19 09:30