Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Harriet Dart v Leyre Romero Gormaz

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Harriet Dart (Local)

Prediction 34.55%2.89fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.907%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.65%34.57%34.50%35.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.692.672.8239.22%37.16%37.38%35.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leyre Romero Gormaz (Visit)

Prediction 65.45%1.53fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -3.05%
Kelly -9.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.48%65.43%65.50%66.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.421.421.4672.46%70.32%70.18%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Harriet Dart (Local): 34.55%; Leyre Romero Gormaz (Visit): 65.45%. For Harriet Dart (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.82, with an expected value of -2.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 34.11%EV -2.56%E -0.907%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.89%EV -4.45%E -3.05%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-20 03:39
GTbets🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.25%E -1.16%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.07%E -4.98%K -16.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-19 10:20
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.98%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.10%E -3.52%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-20 09:49
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.98%E -1.81%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.38%E -5.98%K -20.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-20 09:49
Fliff🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -6.70%E -2.48%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.01%EV -9.03%E -6.50%K -23.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-20 09:49
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -8.43%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -4.45%E -3.05%K -9.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 09:39
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -8.43%E -3.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.41%E -4.48%K -14.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-19 21:50
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.47%E -3.61%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.76%E -4.00%K -13.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-19 10:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.50%EV -9.47%E -3.61%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.50%EV -9.68%E -7.02%K -25.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-20 09:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.28%EV -11.89%E -4.66%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 64.72%EV -9.03%E -6.50%K -23.15%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-20 09:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.86I 34.97%NM 33.95%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.05%3.0%2026-05-20 09:49
Novig2.82I 35.46%NM 34.27%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.73%3.5%2026-05-20 09:49