Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Harmony Tan v Linda Fruhvirtova

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

44%

56%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Harmony Tan (Local)

Prediction 44.39%2.25fair odd

EV +7.86%

Edge +3.23%

Kelly +5.49%

Growth +0.432%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.64%44.51%44.30%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.912.152.102.4352.36%46.58%47.62%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Linda Fruhvirtova (Visit)

Prediction 55.61%1.80fair odd

EV +1.77%

Edge +0.970%

Kelly +2.14%

Growth +0.038%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.07%55.49%55.70%61.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.671.671.8365.36%59.88%59.88%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Harmony Tan (Local): 44.39%; Linda Fruhvirtova (Visit): 55.61%. For Harmony Tan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV +7.86%E +3.23%K +5.49%G +0.432%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -14.91%E -9.74%K -28.13%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-22 08:59
Pinnacle🎯	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV +2.97%E +1.28%K +2.25%G +0.067%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -8.24%E -4.99%K -12.67%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-22 09:10
PlayUp🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV +1.20%E +0.526%K +0.936%G +0.011%	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -9.35%E -5.74%K -14.84%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-05-22 09:08
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -0.133%E -0.059%K -0.106%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -14.91%E -9.74%K -28.13%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-05-22 08:58
Bovada🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.79%E -3.23%K -6.17%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.56%E -0.883%K -2.03%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-05-22 09:20
theScore Bet🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.79%E -3.23%K -6.17%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.12%E -4.27%K -10.63%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-22 09:20
NordicBet🎯	2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%EV -7.68%E -3.69%K -7.11%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -7.12%E -4.27%K -10.63%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-22 09:20
Fliff🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -9.01%E -4.40%K -8.58%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -7.12%E -4.27%K -10.63%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-22 09:20
Betway🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -13.45%E -6.90%K -14.16%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -2.67%E -1.53%K -3.57%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-05-22 09:20
FanDuel🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -15.22%E -7.97%K -16.73%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +1.77%E +0.970%K +2.14%G +0.038%	7.0%	2026-05-22 09:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%	1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%	0.8%	2026-05-22 09:20
Smarkets◎	2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%	1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%	2.1%	2026-05-22 09:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%	4.1%	2026-05-22 09:20
Novig◎	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%	6.2%	2026-05-22 09:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.34I 42.74%NM 38.90%	1.49I 67.11%NM 61.10%	9.8%	2026-05-22 09:20