Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guo Hanyu v Sofia Costoulas

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 11:26 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

41%

59%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guo Hanyu (Local)

Prediction 41.22%2.43fair odd

EV -1.90%

Edge -0.798%

Kelly -1.38%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.50%41.17%41.41%41.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.152.272.262.3846.51%43.99%44.25%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sofia Costoulas (Visit)

Prediction 58.78%1.70fair odd

EV -1.84%

Edge -1.10%

Kelly -2.74%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.11%58.83%58.59%59.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.601.601.6765.36%62.59%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guo Hanyu (Local): 41.22%; Sofia Costoulas (Visit): 58.78%. For Sofia Costoulas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -1.84%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -1.90%E -0.798%K -1.38%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -4.77%E -2.95%K -7.70%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-21 11:10
PlayUp🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.14%E -1.33%K -2.32%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.95%E -3.72%K -9.92%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-21 11:10
GTbets🎯	2.34I 42.74%NM 41.65%EV -3.55%E -1.52%K -2.65%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 58.35%EV -1.84%E -1.10%K -2.74%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-05-21 11:10
NordicBet🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 41.60%EV -6.85%E -3.03%K -5.43%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.40%EV -5.36%E -3.33%K -8.79%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-21 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 41.45%EV -6.85%E -3.03%K -5.43%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.55%EV -5.95%E -3.72%K -9.92%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-21 11:09
theScore Bet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.26%E -3.23%K -5.81%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.36%E -3.33%K -8.79%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-21 11:09
Betway🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.26%E -3.23%K -5.81%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.54%E -4.11%K -11.08%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-05-21 11:09
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 40.80%EV -8.49%E -3.83%K -6.96%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 59.20%EV -10.07%E -6.58%K -18.99%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-05-21 11:09
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -11.38%E -5.29%K -9.89%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 58.11%EV -8.89%E -5.74%K -16.16%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-05-21 11:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%	1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%	2.0%	2026-05-21 11:20
Smarkets◎	2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%	1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17%	2.2%	2026-05-21 11:20