Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.99
assuming max odds 1.90
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francisca Jorge (Local): 48.69%; Xiaodi You (Visit): 51.31%. For Xiaodi You (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.90, with an expected value of -2.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.45%EV -3.11%E -1.56%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.55%EV -4.04%E -2.16%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-19 18:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.06%E -2.60%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.04%E -2.16%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-19 18:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.01%E -3.67%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.10%E -3.33%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-19 18:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.01%E -3.67%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.64%E -4.24%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-19 18:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.50%E -3.95%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.50%E -1.32%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-19 18:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.47%EV -7.50%E -3.95%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.53%EV -4.56%E -2.45%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-19 18:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.96%E -4.79%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.04%E -2.16%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-19 18:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -9.93%E -5.37%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.39%EV -10.20%E -5.83%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-19 18:10 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.10% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.90% | 3.4% | 2026-05-19 18:10 |