Language:English
Francesca Jones v Marie Bouzkova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francesca Jones (Local)
Prediction 9.77%10.24fair odd
EV +96.50%
Edge +4.80%
Kelly +5.05%
Growth +4.87%
assuming max odds 20.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.91%9.35%9.87%11.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.529.4320.1212.50%9.51%10.61%4.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marie Bouzkova (Visit)
Prediction 90.23%1.11fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -31.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.30%90.65%90.13%95.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.041.041.0898.04%96.12%96.15%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francesca Jones (Local): 9.77%; Marie Bouzkova (Visit): 90.23%. For Francesca Jones (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.24. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 20.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +96.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 20.12I 4.97%NM 4.91%EV +96.50%E +4.80%K +5.05%G +4.87% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.09%EV -6.16%E -5.92%K -153.93%G +0.000% | 1.1% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +66.03%E +3.88%K +4.13%G +2.73% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -7.06%E -6.85%K -235.32%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-27 13:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +46.50%E +3.10%K +3.32%G +1.54% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -7.06%E -6.85%K -235.32%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +26.97%E +2.07%K +2.25%G +0.606% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -7.06%E -6.85%K -235.32%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV +22.08%E +1.77%K +1.92%G +0.424% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -7.06%E -6.85%K -235.32%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-27 13:18 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +17.20%E +1.43%K +1.56%G +0.269% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -7.96%E -7.81%K -398.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-27 13:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +17.20%E +1.43%K +1.56%G +0.269% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -7.96%E -7.81%K -398.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-27 13:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +17.20%E +1.43%K +1.56%G +0.269% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -7.96%E -7.81%K -398.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-27 13:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +7.43%E +0.676%K +0.743%G +0.055% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.16%E -5.92%K -153.93%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +7.43%E +0.676%K +0.743%G +0.055% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -7.06%E -6.85%K -235.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +7.43%E +0.676%K +0.743%G +0.055% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -7.06%E -6.85%K -235.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +7.43%E +0.676%K +0.743%G +0.055% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -7.06%E -6.85%K -235.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.45%EV +0.107%E +0.010%K +0.012%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.55%EV -3.45%E -3.22%K -49.29%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -7.22%E -0.760%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -6.16%E -5.92%K -153.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -7.22%E -0.760%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -6.16%E -5.92%K -153.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -7.22%E -0.760%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -6.16%E -5.92%K -153.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 9.35I 10.70%NM 9.84%EV -8.68%E -0.929%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.16%EV -7.96%E -7.81%K -398.10%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.61%EV -11.12%E -1.22%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.39%EV -2.55%E -2.36%K -31.85%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-27 13:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -12.10%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.35%E -4.11%K -72.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -12.10%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.35%E -4.11%K -72.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -12.10%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.35%E -4.11%K -72.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -12.10%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.16%E -5.92%K -153.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -12.10%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -7.06%E -6.85%K -235.32%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-27 13:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -12.10%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -7.06%E -6.85%K -235.32%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -12.10%E -1.34%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -7.06%E -6.85%K -235.32%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV -15.03%E -1.73%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.05%EV -3.45%E -3.22%K -49.29%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -16.98%E -2.00%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.25%E -5.00%K -105.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -16.98%E -2.00%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.16%E -5.92%K -153.93%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -16.98%E -2.00%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.16%E -5.92%K -153.93%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 8.27I 12.09%NM 11.17%EV -19.23%E -2.33%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.83%EV -6.16%E -5.92%K -153.93%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-27 13:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 8.27I 12.09%NM 11.17%EV -19.23%E -2.33%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.83%EV -6.16%E -5.92%K -153.93%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-27 13:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -21.87%E -2.73%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.35%E -4.11%K -72.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-27 13:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.99% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 95.01% | 0.2% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.99% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 95.01% | 0.2% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28% | 0.9% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.66% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34% | 1.0% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.27% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.73% | 2.5% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |
| Novig◎ | 10.87I 9.20%NM 8.58% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.42% | 7.2% | 2026-05-27 13:20 |