Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Despina Papamichail v Guo Hanyu

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 08:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Despina Papamichail (Local)

Prediction 35.03%2.85fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.553%
Kelly -0.859%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.35%34.93%35.05%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.662.652.8139.22%37.59%37.74%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Guo Hanyu (Visit)

Prediction 64.97%1.54fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -8.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.16%65.07%64.95%65.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.441.441.4871.94%69.39%69.44%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Despina Papamichail (Local): 35.03%; Guo Hanyu (Visit): 64.97%. For Despina Papamichail (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.81, with an expected value of -1.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -1.55%E -0.553%K -0.859%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -4.50%E -3.06%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-20 07:29
NordicBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -5.06%E -1.87%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -6.45%E -4.48%K -14.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-19 13:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.95%EV -6.11%E -2.28%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.05%EV -6.45%E -4.48%K -14.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-20 06:39
GTbets🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -6.46%E -2.42%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -3.85%E -2.60%K -8.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-19 09:40
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.16%E -2.70%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.85%E -2.60%K -8.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-20 07:19
Betway🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -7.16%E -2.70%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.45%E -4.48%K -14.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-19 20:50
theScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -7.16%E -2.70%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -7.10%E -4.96%K -16.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-19 09:39
NetBet (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 35.10%EV -9.96%E -3.88%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 64.90%EV -9.70%E -6.98%K -24.86%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-19 21:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -10.66%E -4.18%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.56%EV -9.05%E -6.46%K -22.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-19 09:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%2.9%2026-05-20 07:39