Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Darja Semenistaja v Katarina Zavatska

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Darja Semenistaja (Local)

Prediction 64.76%1.54fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -7.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.94%64.90%64.79%65.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.4971.43%69.23%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Katarina Zavatska (Visit)

Prediction 35.24%2.84fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.05%35.10%35.21%36.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.642.652.7540.00%37.86%37.74%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Darja Semenistaja (Local): 64.76%; Katarina Zavatska (Visit): 35.24%. For Katarina Zavatska (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -3.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -3.51%E -2.35%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -4.15%E -1.52%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-20 14:39
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.16%E -2.81%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.61%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-20 14:40
GTbets🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.65%EV -5.45%E -3.73%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.35%EV -5.91%E -2.21%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-20 14:38
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -5.45%E -3.73%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -6.61%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-20 14:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.88%EV -6.75%E -4.69%K -15.33%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%EV -6.26%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-20 14:48
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.75%E -4.69%K -15.33%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.61%E -2.50%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-20 14:40
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -8.04%E -5.66%K -19.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -3.09%E -1.12%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-20 14:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.94%EV -8.69%E -6.16%K -21.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -11.90%E -4.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-20 14:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.29%EV -9.34%E -6.67%K -23.34%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 35.71%EV -11.19%E -4.44%K -7.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-20 14:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.48I 67.57%NM 65.90%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.10%2.5%2026-05-20 14:49
Novig1.47I 68.03%NM 65.33%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.67%4.1%2026-05-20 14:49