Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cadence Brace v Maria Timofeeva

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

11%

89%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cadence Brace (Local)

Prediction 10.64%9.40fair odd

EV +17.07%

Edge +1.55%

Kelly +1.71%

Growth +0.292%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.79%10.36%10.91%11.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.808.818.5011.0012.82%11.35%11.76%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maria Timofeeva (Visit)

Prediction 89.36%1.12fair odd

EV -3.49%

Edge -3.24%

Kelly -43.68%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

88.11%89.64%89.09%91.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.051.061.0899.01%94.85%94.34%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cadence Brace (Local): 10.64%; Maria Timofeeva (Visit): 89.36%. For Cadence Brace (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.40. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BoyleSports🎯	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +17.07%E +1.55%K +1.71%G +0.292%	1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -5.28%E -4.98%K -88.03%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-05-19 16:40
Pinnacle🎯	9.61I 10.41%NM 9.93%EV +2.28%E +0.237%K +0.265%G +0.006%	1.06I 94.34%NM 90.07%EV -5.28%E -4.98%K -88.03%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-19 16:10
Betway🎯	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -9.53%E -1.12%K -1.27%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.28%E -4.98%K -88.03%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-19 16:10
theScore Bet🎯	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -9.53%E -1.12%K -1.27%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.28%E -4.98%K -88.03%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-19 16:10
NetBet (FR)🎯	8.25I 12.12%NM 10.91%EV -12.19%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 89.09%EV -9.75%E -9.65%K -974.96%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-05-19 16:10
PlayUp🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -14.85%E -1.86%K -2.12%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.49%E -3.24%K -43.68%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-19 16:09
NordicBet🎯	7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV -16.98%E -2.18%K -2.50%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 88.14%EV -6.18%E -5.88%K -123.51%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-19 16:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	9.35I 10.70%NM 10.18%	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.82%	5.0%	2026-05-19 16:40