Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ashlyn Krueger v Luisina Giovannini

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ashlyn Krueger (Local)

Prediction 61.04%1.64fair odd

EV -2.33%

Edge -1.46%

Kelly -3.89%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.49%61.20%61.04%62.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.481.531.501.6067.57%65.57%66.67%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luisina Giovannini (Visit)

Prediction 38.96%2.57fair odd

EV -2.61%

Edge -1.04%

Kelly -1.74%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.47%38.80%38.96%40.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.272.412.422.5044.05%41.47%41.32%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ashlyn Krueger (Local): 61.04%; Luisina Giovannini (Visit): 38.96%. For Ashlyn Krueger (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.60, with an expected value of -2.33%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
PlayUp🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.33%E -1.46%K -3.89%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.45%E -3.60%K -6.26%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-20 12:11
Pinnacle🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -2.94%E -1.85%K -4.99%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -4.94%E -2.03%K -3.43%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-20 11:59
GTbets🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -5.38%E -3.47%K -9.79%G +0.000%	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -4.16%E -1.69%K -2.85%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-05-20 12:09
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.44%E -5.62%K -16.87%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.61%E -1.04%K -1.74%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-20 12:19
Betway🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.44%E -5.62%K -16.87%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.50%E -2.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-20 12:19
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.21%EV -8.44%E -5.62%K -16.87%G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05%NM 39.79%EV -11.57%E -5.10%K -9.11%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-05-20 12:09
NordicBet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.53%EV -9.66%E -6.53%K -20.12%G +0.000%	2.47I 40.49%NM 37.47%EV -3.77%E -1.53%K -2.57%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-20 12:19
Fliff🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -9.66%E -6.53%K -20.12%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -6.50%E -2.71%K -4.64%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-05-20 12:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%	3.7%	2026-05-20 12:11
Novig◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%	6.6%	2026-05-20 12:19