Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arantxa Rus v Jazmin Ortenzi

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

46%

54%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arantxa Rus (Local)

Prediction 46.40%2.16fair odd

EV +6.72%

Edge +2.92%

Kelly +5.17%

Growth +0.347%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.50%46.91%46.67%52.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.752.001.962.3057.14%50.09%51.15%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jazmin Ortenzi (Visit)

Prediction 53.60%1.87fair odd

EV +4.52%

Edge +2.32%

Kelly +4.76%

Growth +0.215%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.30%53.09%53.33%57.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.771.791.9562.50%56.50%56.02%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arantxa Rus (Local): 46.40%; Jazmin Ortenzi (Visit): 53.60%. For Arantxa Rus (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%EV +6.72%E +2.92%K +5.17%G +0.347%	1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%EV -8.88%E -5.22%K -12.68%G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-05-18 16:10
Pinnacle🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV +4.86%E +2.15%K +3.86%G +0.187%	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -9.95%E -5.92%K -14.63%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-18 16:25
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 43.60%EV -3.96%E -1.91%K -3.70%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 56.40%EV -14.24%E -8.90%K -23.73%G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-05-18 16:21
BoyleSports🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.20%E -3.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.26%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-18 16:35
theScore Bet🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -11.38%E -5.96%K -12.51%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -1.91%E -1.04%K -2.30%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-18 16:34
NordicBet🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%EV -12.77%E -6.79%K -14.51%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%EV -2.44%E -1.34%K -2.98%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-18 16:34
Fliff🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 50.41%EV -16.48%E -9.16%K -20.60%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -1.91%E -1.04%K -2.30%G +0.000%	10.2%	2026-05-18 16:35
Betway🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -18.80%E -10.74%K -25.07%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV +4.52%E +2.32%K +4.76%G +0.215%	8.4%	2026-05-18 16:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72%	1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%	2.1%	2026-05-18 16:33