Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aliona Falei v Lisa Pigato

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

27%

73%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aliona Falei (Local)

Prediction 27.00%3.70fair odd

EV -0.907%

Edge -0.247%

Kelly -0.340%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.16%27.12%26.93%29.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.213.413.403.6731.15%29.30%29.41%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lisa Pigato (Visit)

Prediction 73.00%1.37fair odd

EV -2.91%

Edge -2.19%

Kelly -8.82%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.70%72.88%73.07%73.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.231.301.301.3381.30%77.18%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aliona Falei (Local): 27.00%; Lisa Pigato (Visit): 73.00%. For Aliona Falei (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.67, with an expected value of -0.907%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	3.67I 27.25%NM 26.16%EV -0.907%E -0.247%K -0.340%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.84%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -17.00%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-05-18 13:25
Betway🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.50%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.83%E -4.52%K -20.11%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-18 13:10
GTbets🎯	3.41I 29.33%NM 27.91%EV -7.93%E -2.32%K -3.29%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.09%EV -3.64%E -2.76%K -11.38%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-18 13:09
BoyleSports🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.20%E -2.41%K -3.42%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.83%E -4.52%K -20.11%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-18 13:10
NetBet (FR)🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -8.20%E -2.41%K -3.42%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 73.43%EV -10.21%E -8.30%K -44.40%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-05-18 13:20
theScore Bet🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -10.90%E -3.30%K -4.74%G +0.000%	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -4.37%E -3.34%K -14.10%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-18 13:25
NordicBet🎯	3.21I 31.15%NM 29.30%EV -13.33%E -4.15%K -6.03%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.70%EV -2.91%E -2.19%K -8.82%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-18 13:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%	1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%	3.0%	2026-05-18 13:20