Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alina Korneeva v Nao Hibino

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

82%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alina Korneeva (Local)

Prediction 81.66%1.22fair odd

EV -3.65%

Edge -3.09%

Kelly -20.26%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

79.93%81.89%81.46%84.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.101.141.141.1890.91%87.41%87.72%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nao Hibino (Visit)

Prediction 18.34%5.45fair odd

EV +10.07%

Edge +1.68%

Kelly +2.01%

Growth +0.203%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.73%18.11%18.54%20.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.505.195.256.0022.22%19.26%19.07%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alina Korneeva (Local): 81.66%; Nao Hibino (Visit): 18.34%. For Nao Hibino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.45. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BoyleSports🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -8.55%E -7.63%K -71.22%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +10.07%E +1.68%K +2.01%G +0.203%	6.0%	2026-05-18 15:50
Fliff🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 83.70%EV -10.18%E -9.25%K -101.79%G +0.000%	5.65I 17.70%NM 16.30%EV +3.65%E +0.646%K +0.784%G +0.029%	8.6%	2026-05-18 15:50
theScore Bet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -7.73%E -6.84%K -59.46%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -0.939%E -0.174%K -0.213%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-18 15:45
Pinnacle🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.87%EV -3.65%E -3.09%K -20.26%G +0.000%	5.33I 18.76%NM 18.13%EV -2.22%E -0.417%K -0.513%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-05-18 15:40
GTbets🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.76%EV -3.65%E -3.09%K -20.26%G +0.000%	5.29I 18.90%NM 18.24%EV -2.96%E -0.559%K -0.689%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-05-18 15:10
NordicBet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.10%E -5.30%K -40.64%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -4.61%E -0.886%K -1.10%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-18 15:45
Betway🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.46%E -3.81%K -26.25%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -8.28%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-18 15:49
Marathon Bet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.01%EV -5.28%E -4.55%K -33.00%G +0.000%	4.95I 20.20%NM 18.99%EV -9.19%E -1.86%K -2.33%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-18 15:42
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 80.42%EV -8.55%E -7.63%K -71.22%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -15.61%E -3.39%K -4.34%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-05-18 15:25
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 79.93%EV -7.73%E -6.84%K -59.46%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -17.45%E -3.88%K -4.99%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-05-18 15:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%	4.0%	2026-05-18 15:10