Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alina Korneeva v Jazmin Ortenzi

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

45%

55%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alina Korneeva (Local)

Prediction 44.91%2.23fair odd

EV +1.05%

Edge +0.468%

Kelly +0.843%

Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.46%44.91%45.33%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.962.062.052.2551.02%48.50%48.78%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jazmin Ortenzi (Visit)

Prediction 55.09%1.82fair odd

EV -2.50%

Edge -1.41%

Kelly -3.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.83%55.09%54.67%57.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.651.711.701.7760.61%58.62%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alina Korneeva (Local): 44.91%; Jazmin Ortenzi (Visit): 55.09%. For Alina Korneeva (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV +1.05%E +0.468%K +0.843%G +0.009%	1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -8.56%E -5.15%K -12.96%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-20 11:49
Betway🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.35%E -3.74%K -9.07%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-20 11:49
Fliff🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -9.11%E -5.52%K -14.01%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-05-20 11:49
theScore Bet🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -10.17%E -5.09%K -10.17%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.50%E -1.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-20 11:49
NordicBet🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -11.97%E -6.11%K -12.47%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -3.60%E -2.06%K -4.80%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-20 11:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%	6.8%	2026-05-20 11:49