Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Oceane Dodin

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aliaksandra Sasnovich (Local)

Prediction 86.89%1.15fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -22.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.77%86.80%86.83%87.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.081.081.1295.24%92.49%92.59%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oceane Dodin (Visit)

Prediction 13.11%7.63fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.219%
Kelly -0.253%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.59%13.20%13.17%15.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.906.847.107.5016.95%14.61%14.08%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aliaksandra Sasnovich (Local): 86.89%; Oceane Dodin (Visit): 13.11%. For Oceane Dodin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 7.50, with an expected value of -1.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -2.69%E -2.40%K -22.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -18.04%E -2.89%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-20 13:19
Pinnacle🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -4.43%E -4.02%K -44.25%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV -4.92%E -0.679%K -0.788%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-20 13:19
Betway🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.16%E -5.71%K -77.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -1.65%E -0.219%K -0.253%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-20 13:19
theScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -6.16%E -5.71%K -77.04%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -4.92%E -0.679%K -0.788%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-20 13:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.80%EV -6.16%E -5.71%K -77.04%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.20%EV -6.89%E -0.971%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-20 13:14
NordicBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.80%EV -6.16%E -5.71%K -77.04%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.20%EV -6.89%E -0.971%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-20 13:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.77%EV -7.90%E -7.45%K -131.68%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.23%EV -22.63%E -3.84%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-20 13:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 85.91%EV -8.77%E -8.35%K -175.39%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.09%EV -16.07%E -2.51%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-20 13:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.09I 91.74%NM 89.73%9.52I 10.50%NM 10.27%2.2%2026-05-20 13:19
Smarkets1.11I 90.09%NM 88.08%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.92%2.3%2026-05-20 13:19