Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Solana Sierra v Aoi Ito

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Solana Sierra (Local)

Prediction 71.11%1.41fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -9.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.14%71.08%71.34%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.331.331.3676.92%74.95%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aoi Ito (Visit)

Prediction 28.89%3.46fair odd
EV +1.11%
Edge +0.318%
Kelly +0.445%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%28.92%28.66%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.983.243.253.5033.56%30.90%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Solana Sierra (Local): 71.11%; Aoi Ito (Visit): 28.89%. For Aoi Ito (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.56%E -5.81%K -25.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.11%E +0.318%K +0.445%G +0.005%5.5%2026-08-11 14:34
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.79%EV -4.71%E -3.52%K -13.86%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.21%EV -1.49%E -0.436%K -0.617%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-11 21:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.09%EV -4.00%E -2.96%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.91%EV -4.09%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-11 15:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.09%EV -4.00%E -2.96%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.91%EV -4.09%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-11 15:45
GTbets🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.88%EV -3.29%E -2.42%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.12%EV -4.38%E -1.32%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-11 20:44
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.85%E -5.23%K -22.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.67%E -1.41%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-11 14:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.42%E -4.08%K -16.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-11 14:55
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.42%E -4.08%K -16.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-11 14:54
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.29%E -2.42%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.44%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-11 21:45
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.42%E -4.08%K -16.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.44%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-11 15:44
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -6.13%E -4.65%K -19.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -10.44%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-11 16:01
Marathon Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -5.42%E -4.08%K -16.43%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.86%EV -13.91%E -4.67%K -7.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-11 23:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-08-11 23:55