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Sinja Kraus v Marina Bassols Ribera

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sinja Kraus (Local)

Prediction 55.04%1.82fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -3.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%55.04%55.19%60.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.691.731.7765.79%59.20%57.97%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marina Bassols Ribera (Visit)

Prediction 44.96%2.22fair odd
EV +3.40%
Edge +1.48%
Kelly +2.62%
Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.79%44.96%44.81%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.112.102.3048.78%47.28%47.62%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sinja Kraus (Local): 55.04%; Marina Bassols Ribera (Visit): 44.96%. For Marina Bassols Ribera (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -16.34%E -10.75%K -31.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV +3.40%E +1.48%K +2.62%G +0.089%9.3%2026-08-11 17:25
GTbets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.02%EV -13.58%E -8.65%K -23.83%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.98%EV -2.44%E -1.12%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-11 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.23%E -2.43%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.34%E -1.55%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-11 14:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.23%E -2.43%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.34%E -1.55%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-11 14:34
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.38%EV -2.58%E -1.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.62%EV -5.14%E -2.44%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-11 16:20
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.33%E -3.10%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-11 17:25
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.98%E -4.13%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -9.73%E -5.93%K -15.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-11 17:05
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.68%E -2.10%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-11 16:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.78%E -2.76%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-11 16:19
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.78%E -2.76%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-11 16:15
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-11 17:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36%1.1%2026-08-11 17:25

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