Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sinja Kraus v Claire Liu

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sinja Kraus (Local)

Prediction 40.78%2.45fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.883%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.24%40.68%40.89%43.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.192.312.342.4045.66%43.24%42.74%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Claire Liu (Visit)

Prediction 59.22%1.69fair odd
EV -0.517%
Edge -0.308%
Kelly -0.760%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.59%59.32%59.11%60.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.591.581.6864.52%62.76%63.29%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sinja Kraus (Local): 40.78%; Claire Liu (Visit): 59.22%. For Claire Liu (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.68, with an expected value of -0.517%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.12%E -0.883%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.25%E -3.28%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-12 13:25
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -2.12%E -0.883%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.21%E -5.30%K -14.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-12 13:19
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -3.34%E -1.41%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -8.21%E -5.30%K -14.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-12 13:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -3.34%E -1.41%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -8.21%E -5.30%K -14.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-12 13:35
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.16%E -1.77%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.44%E -4.07%K -11.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-12 13:24
LowVig.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -4.57%E -1.95%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -2.29%E -1.39%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-12 13:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -4.57%E -1.95%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -2.29%E -1.39%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-12 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.68%EV -7.83%E -3.46%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.32%EV -8.21%E -5.30%K -14.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-12 13:33
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.66%E -2.90%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 13:20
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.33%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-12 13:35
NordicBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -9.05%E -4.06%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -6.44%E -4.07%K -11.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-12 13:25
GTbets🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -10.68%E -4.88%K -8.98%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -0.517%E -0.308%K -0.760%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 08:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%2.8%2026-08-12 13:55