Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sara Bejlek v Karolina Pliskova

Início: 2026-08-14 15:00 UTC

Final: Sara Bejlek 2–0 Karolina Pliskova

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

61 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sara Bejlek (Local)

Previsão 52.68%1.90odd justa
EV -1.48%
Vantagem -0.793%
Kelly -1.70%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.87

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
51.05%52.68%52.63%53.89%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.741.801.801.8757.47%55.70%55.56%53.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Karolina Pliskova (Visitante)

Previsão 47.32%2.11odd justa
EV -1.58%
Vantagem -0.760%
Kelly -1.46%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.08

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.11%47.32%47.37%48.95%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.902.012.002.0852.63%49.82%50.00%48.08%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Sara Bejlek (Local): 52.68%; Karolina Pliskova (Visitante): 47.32%. Para Sara Bejlek (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.90. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 1.87, com valor esperado de -1.48%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (61 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -1.48%E -0.793%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -7.26%E -3.70%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 14:00
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -2.01%E -1.08%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -8.20%E -4.23%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 13:55
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -2.54%E -1.37%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 14:54
Coolbet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.70%EV -3.06%E -1.67%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.30%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-14 14:30
DraftKings🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -3.06%E -1.67%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -6.31%E -3.19%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.62%E -5.04%K -10.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 13:54
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.62%E -5.04%K -10.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 13:54
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.59%E -1.96%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.62%E -5.04%K -10.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 14:54
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -4.12%E -2.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%EV -1.58%E -0.760%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-14 14:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -4.12%E -2.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-14 10:54
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.12%E -2.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.42%E -2.19%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.12%E -2.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.42%E -2.19%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 06:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.12%E -2.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.42%E -2.19%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 06:44
GTbets🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.12%E -2.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 14:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.12%E -2.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 10:25
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -4.12%E -2.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 14:54
NordicBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -4.64%E -2.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.89%E -2.43%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-13 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -4.64%E -2.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.89%E -2.43%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 10:03
Betsson🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -4.64%E -2.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.89%E -2.43%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 06:39
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-14 14:08
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-14 10:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 14:09
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 14:54
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 14:09
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 11:04
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 14:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 14:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 14:29
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 12:04
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 05:49
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 14:30
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 14:29
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 06:29
BetAnything🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-14 14:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.17%E -2.87%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -10.10%E -5.31%K -11.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-14 06:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.70%E -3.18%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.42%E -2.19%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 14:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.70%E -3.18%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -5.84%E -2.93%K -5.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 14:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -6.22%E -3.50%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -1.58%E -0.760%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-14 14:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -6.22%E -3.50%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -6.31%E -3.19%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 14:09
Neds🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -6.22%E -3.50%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -6.31%E -3.19%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:19
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:20
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:19
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:19
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:19
Bally Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:19
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:20
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 11:19
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.75%E -3.81%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 14:10
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 14:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 14:09
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 05:54
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.41%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 05:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -8.33%E -4.79%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -5.37%E -2.68%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-14 11:19
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Novig◎1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%0.6%2026-08-14 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24%0.6%2026-08-14 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24%0.6%2026-08-14 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24%0.6%2026-08-14 14:55
ProphetX◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.64%2.05I 48.78%NM 48.36%0.9%2026-08-14 14:55
Matchbook◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%2.5%2026-08-14 14:55